Greedy chatbots, precarious pensions and an EV breakthrough
In this issue:
Consumption quiz
In 2035, which will consume more electricity globally: EVs, AI or cooling? (Answer at foot of page)
Well below 1.5C still achievable
Climate Analytics is claiming the end of century temperature increase (over pre-industrial levels) could come in well below 1.5C following a quick elimination of fossil fuels and prompt tackling of other short-lived drivers – notably methane. The report claims swift actions in these two areas will see temperatures peak at 1.7C above the baseline around 2050 and drop thereafter.
Stakes in the ground on targets
The New Climate Institute’s latest Net Zero Stocktake tells us, despite political headwinds, especially in the US, 47% of the 4,000 entities it tracks still carry net zero (or similar) targets, a figure unchanged since the 2025 Stocktake. 137 of the 198 national governments followed have net zero targets, with 73% of those having the targets enshrined in law or policy, up from 2025. Meanwhile 64% of the listed companies followed have net zero targets, again similar to last year.
Relentless renewables
Renewables will grow by 60% more in the next 6 years than they did in the last, according to the latest IEA predictions on renewable uptake, with PV accounting for 75% of the growth. The use of renewables in transport will lift 60% to account for 6% of the transport sector’s energy demand worldwide. Continued EV uptake will account for 45% of that lift.
We have the technology
A new report on buildings efficiency from the IEA confirms a 25% improvement in the energy intensity of buildings by 2035 is entirely achievable using existing technologies and proven policy solutions. The biggest potential contributor to improvements is the use of more efficient equipment (40%), followed by better building envelopes (20%) and electrification (15%). A 25% improvement in energy intensity would result in a 40% decrease in emissions (globally).
Precarious pensions
A scenario of 2.8C warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100 could hit the value of pensions by as much 30% by 2050, according to a new report from Ortec Finance. Ortec analysed 180 pension funds from the UK, US, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands and Switzerland to draw the conclusion. The analysis also concluded we can anticipate GDP falls as well, but of a lower magnitude. Given the current estimate of warming is around 2.6C, it means many of our pension funds could be at risk of much weaker returns than we’d like.
Be prepared
That’s the message to come out of MSCI Institute’s Transition Finance Tracker report, published to coincide with COP31. It’s analysis shows companies in the top fifth for transition readiness financially outperformed the bottom fifth by 25%. This increased to a 30% differential in countries where policy pressures are stronger. Other findings include:
- Clean energy stocks enjoyed double the returns of oil and gas stocks over 10 years, although recent performance has inverted that hugely;
- Most power emissions can be addressed with solutions that are already cost competitive;
- Heat related productivity losses are already impacting share prices.
A better ETS
With the election behind us and even with a result still a few weeks away, it’s fair to say we can expect changes to the ETS from the next government, whatever its hue. Demonstrating perfect timing, then, is the ICVCM which has just published a guide for policymakers on building a high integrity carbon market. The guide revolves around the ICVCM’s core carbon principles (CCPs) and, importantly, governments can apply for assessment against the CCPs for their official carbon markets.
Big is bad in the world of chatbots
It seems not all chatbots are equal, especially when it comes to emissions. Bloomberg has crunched the numbers on chatbot emissions and concluded the larger agents tend to come with more emissions than smaller ones. Large, frontier models such as GPT-4, Gemini Ultra and Claude Opus generate between 2.9 and 4.3 grammes of CO2e per query. Mid-sized bots (GPT-4 mini, Gemini, Claude Sonnet) release between 1.2 and 2.1 grammes per query and optimised models (GPT-3.5, Claude Haiku) are responsible for between 0.3 and 0.8 grammes per query.
Electrification alliance
COPs bring with them many reports, statements of intent and collectives and COP31 is no different. Several reports are covered in other stories but on the collectives front, we can report the launch of the Electrification Alliance, a collective of leading international companies aross the electricity value chain, including: Siemens, E.ON, Arup, Heineken and Unilever.
Battery breakthrough
One of the drawbacks of current EVs is that performance drops off as the battery runs down, a failing not experienced with ICE engines that enjoy the same performance (notwithstanding any weight differential) whether the tank is full or near-empty. Mercedes may now have cracked this weakness by employing microconverters that manage individual cells meaning a constant voltage is supplied to the traction inverter even when batteries are losing charge or if some are suffering from weakening capacity. A constant voltage would bring other benefits, such as simplified drive systems, and the microconverters could also be used in the charging process, removing the need for an onboard charger, saving weight.
Consumption quiz – Answer
According to DNV, cooling will be sucking up 13% of global electricity demand in 2035, more than double either of the other demand sources.