Inaccurate inferences, EVs 33% cheaper and are scientists trustworthy?
In this issue:
15:1 return on investment
A new report from the UNEP and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition tells us investments in coordinated action on climate and air pollution will deliver an average 15:1 return on investment, or an IRR of 60%. While pollution and climate change commonly have the same cause – the burning of fossil fuels – they are commonly addressed separately according to the report. The majority of benefit would be seen in better health outcomes in areas such as asthma, heart attacks, COPD, diabetes, lung cancer, dementia and stroke with as many as 144 million premature deaths avoided. Benefits would materialise around the globe with even wealthier countries seeing a 3:1 return.
Inaccurate inferences
Published climate targets are not getting translated into follow-through investing according to a report from Clarity AI. In a study of 886 high-emitting, global companies, it found those with climate targets aligned with warming of 2C or lower allocated, on average, 27% of their capital expenditure to green projects, while companies without such targets allocated 25% to green projects. Looking at just organisations in the energy sector, those without aligned targets invested a higher proportion of capex into green projects than those with aligned targets, 14% compared with 11%. The report’s conclusion is that there is no strong link between stated climate ambitions and investment choices and investors looking at stated policies as a guide to corporate investment focus are potentially looking in the wrong place.
Is this us? Do you trust climate scientists?
A fascinating report from King’s College London reveals trust in scientists is quite strongly linked to political beliefs, shared values and feelings of identity. Overall, trust in scientists is quite strong with 63% of the respondents indicating a high level of trust but this figure differs hugely by political persuasion. Supporters of the Reform UK party collectively reported a trust level of 32%, for Greens supporters it was 71%.
Climate scientists fared worse than the general average, with an average trust level of 54% and they experience the highest level of suspicion or cynicism of any category at 30%. There is a very clear demarcation on trust for climate scientists by political persuasion. Left leaning supporters (Green, Labour, LibDem) all showed high trust in climate scientists (72%-84%), while Conservative supporters showed poor trust, at 46%, and Reform UK supporters never buying a used lawnmower from the profession, holding a trust rating for climate scientists of only 19%.
Of course, the report was prepared by (social) scientists, so should we trust it? And wouldn’t it be interesting to see if New Zealand differed much.
94% of businesses reporting climate change losses
In a (Capgemini) survey of 1,000 senior business leaders from across the US, UK, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Scandinavia, 94% indicated they had experienced financial losses from climate-related disruption, with 30% indicating losses in excess of US$1 million (NZ$1.7m). Only 1 in 5 indicated disruptions costing less than US$100,000 (NZ$171,000). The need to react to climate change remains top of mind with 85% indicating the need to transition to low carbon operations and 86% seeing that transition as an opportunity rather than a cost.
EVs 33% cheaper to run – before the oil crisis
We’ve seen such comparisons before but in an increasingly volatile energy market, it’s good to know EVs remain cheaper to run than ICE vehicles. The latest report, from the International Council on Clean Transportation (Europe), suggests they are 33% cheaper – and that is under 2025 oil prices. The steadily increasing EV advantage has come from falling battery prices. The oil price shock in early 2026 has seen extra energy costs for ICE vehicles of 12%-36%, while electricity prices have been little impacted, so the advantage will currently be even higher.
In addition, the report reveals the upfront cost of EVs has now reached parity with ICE vehicles in the three largest market segments. The report predicts electric trucks will hit parity with diesel trucks for total cost of ownership by 2030. In Germany, because of toll exemptions, a long-haul electric truck already costs 11% less to own and operate than its diesel counterpart.
Trading activities accounting for 20% of global emissions
A new study from the European Climate Foundation (ECF) and climate consultancy Matière tells us global trade now accounts for 20% of global emissions. Trade related emissions have grown 10 percentage points faster than global emissions since 1995 on the back of increased international trade. With an average of more than one in five tonnes of emissions being from imported goods and some countries such as Sweden, Austria and Spain having in excess of 40% of their footprints imported, we can only expect more border adjustments to emerge around the world.
Best EV for longevity is ……
Austrian company Aviloo has just released what it claims to be the biggest study yet of EV battery health. Aviloo operates a scanning service for EV batteries and its database now covers 500,000 vehicles across North and South America, Europe, Australia and Asia. An interesting finding is that battery health in the same model can vary by as much as 13.5 percentage points depending on use and charging habits. For battery health after 150,000Kms, in third place is the BMW i4, with a median SoH (State of Health) of 93.62%. The Ioniq 5 took out second place with a median SoH of 93.79%. And the winner is …….. the Mercedes EQA at 93.97%. Don’t ask about the Nissa Leaf.
