Paris at 10, unstoppable renewables and terminating pollution
In this issue:
Paris at 10
The Paris agreement is turning 10 very soon and while we mostly hear about the failings, the shortfalls and the inadequate NDCs, there are a few wins to celebrate. Since the agreement came into being:
- Global growth in GHG emissions has slowed to an average 0.32% a year, less than one fifth of the rate in the 10 years before Paris;
- Annual CO2 emissions have grown by 1.17%, the previous decade it was 18.4% a year;
- The big 4 emitters have all demonstrated slower growth or faster declines in emissions.
So, not all bad.
Renewables “unstoppable”
Just published is the IEA’s Renewables 2025, with few surprises emerging from the data. It is predicting renewable generation will double between now and 2030, with the charge being lead by solar at a rate of 80% of new installations. The outlook is not all rosy with forecast growth being revised down since last year on the back of the US Government’s anti-renewables stance. It is expecting renewables growth to halve in the US. China continues to dominate production of solar and wind technologies.
Transition still on track
In a similar vein, DNV is predicting the US’s policy reversal to one of anti-renewables will delay its energy transition by five years but will have only a marginal effect on the transition globally. It is predicting emissions will decline by 43% by mid century and we’ll see net zero achieved some time in the 2090s, with an end of century temperature increase of 2.2C above pre-industrial levels.
Landmark passed
The march of renewables is also reflected in the finding that wind and solar generated more electricity than coal in the first half of 2025. This is a historic first, coal having been the biggest source of electricity generation since industrialisation. The new report, from Ember, indicates a demand increase of 2.6% in the period with all additional demand satisfied by renewables and also some modest displacement of coal and gas.
Corporate US undeterred by Trump
A new study from MIT indicates US corporates are mostly maintaining their sustainability ambitions despite the federal government pushing strongly the other way. In a survey of over 1,200 professionals across 97 countries, 85% of respondents said their companies were either maintaining or increasing their sustainability commitments. While the proportion in the US was lower, the number maintaining or increasing commitments was still a fairly healthy 73%. The researchers concluded higher pressures in Europe, especially around Scope 3 emissions, resulted in stronger commitments and actions with more focus on the supply chain.
CEO confidence increasing
61% of CEO’s globally are confident they will hit their 2030 net zero targets, up from 51% last year according to KPMG’s 2025 CEO Outlook report. Only 25% admitted to lacking confidence in achieving their goals. Supply chain emissions are cited as the biggest challenge to overcome, followed by talent acquisition. 65% claim they have fully embedded sustainability into their business but only 29% report sustainability embedded in investment practices.
Cascading overvoltage
That’s the preliminary finding of the investigation into the huge power outage in Spain and Portugal earlier this year. A cascading overvoltage is a technical event whereby one power spike triggers additional spikes through the network. The practical conclusion was an old network unable to right itself automatically after the initial trigger event.
The cost of carbon removal
A new study from Allied Offsets indicates the investment in carbon removal technologies required for consistency with net zero would be at least US$1.5 trillion (NZ$2.6trn) a year and possibly as much as US$6trn (NZ$10.4trn). Those estimates are based on the need to remove between 5 and 22 gigatonnes a year respectively, depending on other reduction and removal factors.
Streetlight chargers are winners
The idea of multi-purposing streetlights into EV chargers isn’t new but a new 12-month study from Penn State University of 23 installations in Kansas City has demonstrated retrofitting streetlights as chargers is not only feasible but beneficial across a range of factors. The retrofits are considerably cheaper than new installations, can commonly accommodate faster charging because of the dedicated networks and are already placed at convenient locations.
Banking alliance folds
As we reported a few weeks ago, the Net Zero Banking Alliance went to a vote on continuing as a member organisation. We can now confirm the members voted to cease operations. Some of the guidance frameworks will remain available to help individual banks set targets but the collective commitments, weakened after numerous high profile departures, have now been dropped.
“Terminate pollution”
That’s the rallying call of actor and former Governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnie is using his enduring influence to combat climate change through the Schwarzenegger Climate Initiative and was speaking at the Raising Hope for Climate Justice event alongside Pope Leo XIV last week. The Schwarzenegger Climate Initiative also organises an annual conference, the Austrian World Summit, in Vienna each year.
Did you know ……
Trees in the Amazon are reacting to climate change by putting on a bit of weight? That’s the conclusion of 50 years of tracking dimensions. As CO2 levels increase, the trees are absorbing more and becoming a little more chunky, increasing circumference by an average 3.3% a decade.