Clean energy on the up, temperatures holding at record highs and oil companies in disguise
In this issue:
Temperatures to remain at record levels
The latest World Meteorological Organisation report on global temperatures predicts global average temperatures will continue at or close to record levels for the coming 5 years. Temperatures are predicted to remain between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average, with an 86% chance one of the years will exceed the highest year on record, 2024. It concludes there is a 91% chance at least one of the years will exceed the 1.5C threshold and a 75% chance the 2026-30, five year average will exceed the 1.5C threshold.
Money heads back into carbon credits
After several years of uncertainty and disruption caused by questionable quality, the level of capital committed or deployed into the international voluntary carbon market has hit a new high. In 2025, US$22 billion (NZ$38bn) was invested, up 72% from 2024 and five times higher than 2021. As well as the pursuit of quality, the market is also evolving with interest shifting towards forward and pre-purchase agreements.
Clean power drives energy investment
The IEA is reporting energy investment in 2026 will hit US$3.4 trillion (NZ$5.8trn), with electricity absorbing the lion’s share of that investment. US$1.6trn (NZ$2.7trn) is expected to be invested into generation and grids, leaping to $2trn (NZ$3.4trn) when electrification investment is factored in. Oil, gas and coal is expected to see $1.2trn (NZ$2trn) of investment.
Clean energy trade bounces back
Despite ongoing issues around tariffs, international trade in clean energy products is back on the increase, according to a new report from BloombergNEF. The 1% increase to US$479 billion (NZ$815bn) is modest but is substantially stronger than the 7% fall seen the year before. Overcapacity in China has kept the increase and margins weak, although both are expected to increase as the Iran conflict has seen huge interest in the first half of 2026.
Is there a better way?
Uruguayan ferry operator, Buquebus, will shortly take delivery of the world’s largest electric ferry. Built in Tasmania, the 130 metre China Zorilla can transport 2,100 passengers and 225 vehicles. For context, the Kaitaki is 180 metres and carries 1,350 passengers and 600 vehicles. A key difference, though, is the China Zorilla has a run time of only 90 minutes, ample for the 1 hour trip between Colonia del Sacramento in Uruguay and Buenos Aires but not sufficient to get from Wellington to Picton. The China Zorilla completed its sea trials earlier in the year but delivery has been delayed because the transport vessel booked to ship it across the Pacific is trapped the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. A replacement has now been sourced.
Oil companies in disguise
Carbon Tracker continues its efforts to keep high emitters honest. In its sights recently has been the auto industry. Labelling the industry “oil companies in disguise”, it concludes the sector is underreporting Scope 3 emissions by around 33%, on average. Japanese companies Mazda and Subaru stand far out from the crowd in terms of carbon intensity of product with five of the top seven companies being Japanese.
Did you know ….
Today (5th June) is World Environment Day? The first World Environment Day was held in 1973 and each has a host country and is themed. 2026 is hosted by Azerbaijan with a theme of Climate Action.